San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Barnhart singled to center, Carroll scored, Newman to third.4–11
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–11
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–10
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–10
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–10
- 4Pederson homered to right (373 feet), Walker scored.4–10
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–10
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Swinging4–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 34–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–8
- 4Walker reached on infield single to third, McCarthy scored.4–8
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–8
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 24–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 4McCarthy doubled to center, Barnhart scored.4–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–6
- 3Machado grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Tatis Jr. scored, Cronenworth out at second.4–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 2Walker doubled to center, McCarthy scored.3–6
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 2McCarthy singled to center, Barnhart scored.3–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 13–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 2Higashioka doubled to left, Kim scored.3–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 2Merrill homered to right center (394 feet), Bogaerts scored.2–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 1Carroll singled to center, Smith scored. Walker scored, Carroll safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Merrill.0–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 50%
- ML SD -110 / ARI -110
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- ARI: Elo 47.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- ARI -100
- SD -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.3 – 4.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −9 | SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +18 Elo | SD 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.5 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 8th of 309–6 | Road vs home | 8–1021st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–17 | 15–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–14 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders | 20–15–1 | 14–19–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 8–7 ARI in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 15.