Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Yasmani GrandalBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tauchman hit sacrifice fly to center, Mastrobuoni scored.9–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–10
- 6McCutchen homered to center (423 feet).8–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–9
- 5Grandal homered to right (416 feet), Cruz scored and N. Gonzales scored.8–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 18–6
- 5Bellinger walked, Gomes scored, Suzuki to second, Tauchman to third.8–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 48–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 37–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 27–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 5Suzuki walked, Mastrobuoni scored, Tauchman to second, Gomes to third.7–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 47–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 36–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 26–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 5Tauchman reached on infield single to shortstop, Busch scored, Gomes to second, Mastrobuoni to third.6–6
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 15–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 5Gomes walked, Hoerner scored, Mastrobuoni to second, Busch to third.5–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 45–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 34–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 5Mastrobuoni walked, Happ scored, Busch to second, Hoerner to third.4–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 44–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 33–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 5Busch walked, Suzuki scored, Hoerner to second, Happ to third.3–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 43–6
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 51%
- ML CHC -115 / PIT -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 53.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -104
- PIT +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.3 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +2 | CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +26 Elo | CHC 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.528th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.720th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 16th of 3010–10 | Road vs home | 8–1121st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–16 | 15–22 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 5–14 |
| Underdog | 17–6 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 17–21–1 | 17–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 11–3 PIT in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.