Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Christopher MorelBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Connor JoeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 10Joe homered to left (379 feet), Cruz scored.5–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 10Tauchman scored, Madrigal to second on passed ball by Grandal, Crow-Armstrong to third on passed ball by Grandal.5–2
- 10Tauchman scored, Madrigal to second on passed ball by Grandal, Crow-Armstrong to third on passed ball by Grandal.5–2
- 10Wisdom homered to center (412 feet).4–2
- 10Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–2
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball 33–2
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 23–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 10Bellinger singled to left, Suzuki scored, Bellinger thrown out at second.3–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6Triolo hit sacrifice fly to right, Joe scored, Suwinski to third.2–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Cruz homered to right (353 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Morel homered to left (397 feet), Hoerner scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 52%
- ML CHC -120 / PIT +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- CHC: Elo 51.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -109
- PIT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.3 – 4.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −29 | −6 | CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 1.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +10 Elo | CHC 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.627th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.620th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 17th of 3010–11 | Road vs home | 9–1118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–16 | 15–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 5–15 |
| Underdog | 18–6 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 18–21–1 | 18–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 11–4 PIT in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 15.