Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting5-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Reynolds homered to center (421 feet).8–6
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play8–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 37–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking7–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 27–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 8Bauers homered to right center (398 feet), Perkins scored, Sánchez scored and Ortiz scored.7–6
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 37–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 27–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 8Grandal homered to right center (424 feet), Triolo scored.7–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 7Adames doubled to right, Contreras scored and Monasterio scored, Adames out stretching at third.5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 7Cruz singled to right, McCutchen scored, Reynolds to third.5–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 7McCutchen singled to left, Taylor scored.4–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Reynolds doubled to right, McCutchen scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML PIT +125 / MIL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 61.7%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -133
- PIT +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.9 – 4.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +5 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +83 Elo | MIL 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.98th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 21st of 309–11 | Road vs home | 10–812th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–23 | 23–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–15 | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 19–20 | 24–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 7–10 MIL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.