Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Joey EstesPitching3.2 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Astros- Joey LoperfidoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Gelof singled to right, Soderstrom scored.1–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–8
- 4Bregman scored on a balk.0–8
- 4Bregman scored on a balk.0–8
- 4Peña hit sacrifice fly to right, Tucker scored, Bregman to third.0–7
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 10–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 3Loperfido homered to right (354 feet), Meyers scored.0–6
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–6
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 3Meyers doubled to left, Diaz scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Diaz doubled to center, Singleton scored, Tucker scored and Peña scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 65%
- ML OAK +175 / HOU -210
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 62.2%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -186
- OAK +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.6 – 4.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −4 | OAK: Joey Estes: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +87 Elo | HOU 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 63.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 25th of 309–13 | Road vs home | 10–1218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–21 | 16–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 10–20 |
| Underdog | 21–18 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 23–22 | 16–22–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 3–13 HOU in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 16.