Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryse WilsonPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Astros- Jake MeyersBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Meyers homered to left (352 feet).4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Contreras homered to center (428 feet), Frelick scored and Chourio scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 13 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 12 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 11 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Perkins hit sacrifice fly to left, Ortiz scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 10 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball 30–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Dubón singled to center, Meyers scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 61%
- ML MIL +150 / HOU -175
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 49.2%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -159
- MIL +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.7 – 4.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +9 | MIL: Bryse Wilson: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +6 Elo | MIL 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 5th of 3014–9 | Road vs home | 12–1213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–19 | 17–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 11–21 |
| Underdog | 17–7 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 27–17 | 18–22–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–2 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.