Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Kevin PillarBatting1-1, 2 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching7.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rengifo tripled to center, Pillar scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 7Pillar singled to center, Adell scored and Neto scored, Moniak thrown out at third.3–1
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 31–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 21–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 7Moniak singled to left, Calhoun scored, Neto to second, Adell to third.1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Seager homered to right (352 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 58%
- ML LAA +130 / TEX -155
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- TEX: Elo 61.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -140
- LAA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.9 – 4.6 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −5 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TEX: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +83 Elo | TEX 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 20th of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 12–1213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–22 | 19–28 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 0–11 | 9–21 |
| Underdog | 24–11 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 26–20 | 20–26–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 7–8 TEX in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.