New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Andres GimenezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Triston McKenziePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Manzardo doubled to left, Ramírez scored.3–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 23–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 8Ramírez doubled to center, Giménez scored.3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 7Rodríguez singled to right, Fry scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 6Giménez homered to center (391 feet), Hedges scored and Freeman scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 33–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 4Bader homered to left (401 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2McNeil homered to right center (377 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Alonso homered to right center (380 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 51%
- ML NYM -105 / CLE -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 58.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- NYM +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.7 – 4.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +11 | NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Triston McKenzie: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +58 Elo | CLE 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.64th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.35th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 21st of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 17–61st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–26 | 31–18 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–14 | 14–13 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 17–5 |
| Overs–unders | 25–22 | 24–23–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 3–2 CLE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.