Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Kyren ParisBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Astros- Mauricio DubonBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Dubón doubled to left, Meyers scored, Dubón out stretching at third.2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 5Paris homered to left center (408 feet), Moniak scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 64%
- ML LAA +170 / HOU -200
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.7%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -180
- LAA +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.6 – 4.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −21 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 1.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +40 Elo | HOU 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 67.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 66.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3013–14 | Road vs home | 14–1412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–22 | 18–29 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–11 | 12–24 |
| Underdog | 27–11 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 28–21 | 21–23–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 5–10 HOU in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.