Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 10Peña singled to right, Tucker scored, Alvarez to third.5–6
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–6
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 15–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 7Tucker homered to right (407 feet).5–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 25–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 15–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 7Pillar homered to left center (350 feet).5–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 6Singleton homered to center (432 feet), Peña scored.4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 4Rengifo singled to center, Neto scored.4–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 4Neto doubled to shortstop, Guillorme scored, Neto to third.3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 1Alvarez homered to right (358 feet).2–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Tucker homered to left (340 feet).2–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Rengifo homered to right center (373 feet), Schanuel scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 64%
- ML LAA +170 / HOU -200
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 58.4%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -180
- LAA +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.6 – 4.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +2 | LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +59 Elo | HOU 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 62.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 12th of 3013–13 | Road vs home | 13–1414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–22 | 18–28 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–11 | 12–23 |
| Underdog | 26–11 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 27–21 | 20–23–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 5–9 HOU in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.