New York Yankees at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tatis Jr. homered to center (406 feet).4–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 14–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 4Torres hit sacrifice fly to center, Verdugo scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Rizzo singled to right, Judge scored, Verdugo to third.3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Judge homered to left center (429 feet), Volpe scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 53%
- ML NYY +105 / SD -125
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- SD: Elo 50.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -114
- NYY +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.6 – 3.9 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +6 | NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +1 Elo | SD 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.7 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3018–9 | Road vs home | 10–1626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–23 | 29–25 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–18 | 13–18 |
| Underdog | 12–5 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 24–28–1 | 30–23–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 3–1 SD in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.