San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis ArraezBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael KingPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Reds- Jeimer CandelarioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Stephenson doubled to center, Candelario scored and Hurtubise scored.7–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 6Arraez singled to right, Wade scored, Arraez to second.7–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 26–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 6Wade singled to right, Azocar scored.6–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 15–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 5Cronenworth singled to center, Profar scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 5Profar doubled to left, Tatis Jr. scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Tatis Jr. singled to right, Campusano scored, Wade thrown out at second.3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Peralta grounded into fielder's choice to second, Profar scored, Machado third.2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Candelario homered to center (387 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Arraez homered to right (374 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 54%
- ML SD -130 / CIN +110
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- SD: Elo 50.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -119
- CIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.9 – 4.6 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +5 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +5 Elo | SD 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 6th of 3014–10 | Road vs home | 10–1322nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–24 | 25–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–18 | 10–13 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 15–10 |
| Overs–unders | 27–23–1 | 23–24–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 5–5 CIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.