San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Machado doubled to left, Cronenworth scored and Profar scored.6–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–5
- 8Cronenworth singled to center, Kim scored and Tatis Jr. scored, Profar to second.4–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 7Merrill singled to center, Profar scored, Cronenworth to second.2–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 5Merrill grounded out to second, Machado scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 3Acuña Jr. reached on infield single to second, Arcia scored, Kelenic to second, Short to third.0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Olson homered to right (414 feet).0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Ozuna homered to left center (411 feet).0–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Harris II reached on infield single to shortstop, Albies scored, Olson to second.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Olson singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored, Albies to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML SD +105 / ATL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -114
- SD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.6 – 3.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +13 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +57 Elo | ATL 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.77th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.97th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 4th of 3013–8 | Road vs home | 15–76th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–22 | 22–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–17 | 18–19 |
| Underdog | 13–5 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 26–21–1 | 13–26–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 6–3 ATL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 9.