Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Mike TauchmanBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Braves- Zack ShortBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suzuki homered to center (412 feet).7–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 8Gomes hit sacrifice fly to right, Crow-Armstrong scored.6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Short doubled to center, Arcia scored.5–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 5Crow-Armstrong reached on bunt single to shortstop, Busch scored.5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Mastrobuoni scored, Madrigal to third on pickoff error by pitcher Morton.4–0
- 3Mastrobuoni scored, Madrigal to third on pickoff error by pitcher Morton.4–0
- 1Crow-Armstrong hit by pitch, Busch scored, Madrigal to second, Mastrobuoni to third.3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Morel grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Suzuki scored, Bellinger out at second.2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Tauchman homered to left (356 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 62%
- ML CHC +155 / ATL -185
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.9%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -166
- CHC +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.7 – 4.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −2 | CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +48 Elo | ATL 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 62.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.55th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 18th of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 15–41st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–19 | 22–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 6–11 | 18–16 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 19–23–1 | 12–24–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 2–6 ATL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.