San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Ray KerrPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Albies singled to left, Tromp scored.9–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking9–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–1
- 7Kim homered to left center (393 feet).9–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 19–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging9–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–0
- 5Campusano homered to left (364 feet).8–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 4Bogaerts hit sacrifice fly to left, Profar scored.7–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 17–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 4Profar doubled to right, Tatis Jr. scored.6–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Tatis Jr. doubled to right, Arraez scored and Kim scored, Tatis Jr. to third.5–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 25–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 1Merrill singled to right, Machado scored, Bogaerts to second.3–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Cronenworth homered to right (392 feet), Profar scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML SD +105 / ATL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -114
- SD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.1 – 4.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −14 | SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +46 Elo | ATL 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.65th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.17th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 5th of 3012–8 | Road vs home | 15–62nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–22 | 22–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–17 | 18–18 |
| Underdog | 12–5 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 25–21–1 | 12–26–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 0–10 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 5–3 ATL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.