Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Jordan BeckBatting3-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Padres- Donovan SolanoBatting2-3
- Michael KingPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Beck singled to left, Cave scored.8–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 6Beck homered to left (382 feet), Stallings scored.7–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 3Stallings singled to left, McMahon scored and Doyle scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Beck doubled to left, Montero scored and Cave scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Doyle homered to left center (431 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SD 68%
- ML COL +200 / SD -240
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- SD: Elo 63.8%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- SD -212
- COL +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.9 – 4.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +6 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +99 Elo | SD 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 66.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 29th of 305–16 | Road vs home | 10–1423rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–18 | 24–21 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 12–16 |
| Underdog | 20–16 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders | 22–17 | 24–20–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 8–11 SD in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.