Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-4
- Tyler GlasnowPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Padres- Luis CampusanoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arraez singled to center, Wade scored.1–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Freeman hit sacrifice fly to left, Betts scored.1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Campusano homered to center (429 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 63%
- ML LAD -190 / SD +160
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 56.6%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -170
- SD +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 3.2 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +23 | +2 | LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 1.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +46 Elo | LAD 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.5 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.9 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3010–5 | Road vs home | 8–1120th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–18 | 22–18 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–16 | 11–14 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders | 21–17–1 | 22–17–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 11–7 SD in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 18.