Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Elehuris MonteroBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Dakota HudsonPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Padres- Jurickson ProfarBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 7Merrill homered to right (397 feet).5–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 6Profar homered to right (390 feet), Machado scored.5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Tovar singled to center, Blackmon scored.5–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Blackmon singled to right, Montero scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 4Montero doubled to center, Cave scored on error and Rodgers scored on error, Montero safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Kim.3–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Bogaerts homered to left (412 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Montero reached on infield single to shortstop, Doyle scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SD 66%
- ML COL +185 / SD -220
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- SD: Elo 64.9%, market 66.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -196
- COL +196 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 4.5 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1435 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | 0 | COL: Dakota Hudson: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +106 Elo | SD 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 63.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 66.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 30th of 303–16 | Road vs home | 10–1219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–18 | 24–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 12–14 |
| Underdog | 18–16 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders | 20–17 | 22–20–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 6–11 SD in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.