Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-4
- Walker BuehlerPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Bogaerts homered to left center (424 feet).0–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 4Arraez grounded into fielder's choice to first, Merrill scored, Kim out at second, Campusano to third.0–3
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 30–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Cronenworth homered to center (408 feet).0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Tatis Jr. homered to center (442 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 51%
- ML LAD -115 / SD -105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 55.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -104
- SD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 3.8 – 3.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −6 | LAD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +36 Elo | LAD 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.9 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3011–6 | Road vs home | 9–1221st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–19 | 23–19 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 21–17 | 11–14 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders | 21–19–1 | 22–19–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 12–8 SD in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.