Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-4
- Matt WaldronPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6T. Hernández homered to left (390 feet), Ohtani scored, Smith scored and Muncy scored.5–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Freeman homered to right (341 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 58%
- ML LAD -150 / SD +130
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 55.1%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -138
- SD +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.1 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −10 | LAD: James Paxton: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +35 Elo | LAD 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.8 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 4th of 3010–6 | Road vs home | 9–1118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–19 | 23–18 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 20–17 | 11–14 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 21–18–1 | 22–18–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 11–8 SD in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 19.