Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Padres- Luis ArraezBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Campusano scored on Vodnik wild pitch, Tatis Jr. to second, Arraez to third.6–3
- 7Campusano scored on Vodnik wild pitch, Tatis Jr. to second on wild pitch by Vodnik, Arraez to third on wild pitch by Vodnik.6–3
- 7Arraez singled to right, Merrill scored, Campusano to second.6–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 16–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 7Campusano singled to center, Profar scored, Merrill to third.6–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 7Tovar homered to left (394 feet).6–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Beck singled to right, Cave scored, Montero to second.5–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 6Montero reached on infield single to pitcher, Doyle scored, Cave to third.4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Cave singled to right, Rodgers scored, Cave to second, Doyle to third.3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 6Rodgers singled to center, Tovar scored.2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 4McMahon homered to right center (391 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- SD 72%
- ML COL +240 / SD -290
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- SD: Elo 64.5%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- SD -253
- COL +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.7 – 4.8 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1436 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +12 | COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +104 Elo | SD 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 67.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 71.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 29th of 304–16 | Road vs home | 10–1320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–18 | 24–20 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 12–15 |
| Underdog | 19–16 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders | 21–17 | 23–20–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 7–11 SD in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.