San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Max FriedPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5Machado grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Profar scored, Cronenworth out at second.3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Cronenworth singled to right, Tatis Jr. scored, Profar to third.2–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 5Profar singled to right, Arraez scored, Tatis Jr. to third.1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul0–1
- 1Olson singled to left, Acuña Jr. scored, Albies thrown out at third.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 66%
- ML SD +180 / ATL -215
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 61.9%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -191
- SD +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.5 – 5.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +10 | SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +85 Elo | ATL 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 63.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.66th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.25th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 7th of 3011–8 | Road vs home | 15–51st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–22 | 22–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–17 | 18–17 |
| Underdog | 11–5 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 25–20–1 | 12–25–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 4–3 ATL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.