Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Heyward homered to right (384 feet), Pages scored.3–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 7Freeman scored on Cruz wild pitch, Smith to second on wild pitch by Cruz.3–5
- 7Freeman scored on Cruz wild pitch, Smith to second on wild pitch by Cruz.3–5
- 7Smith singled to left, Ohtani scored, Freeman to third.3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Stephenson homered to left center (375 feet).3–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 32–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Fairchild homered to left center (405 feet).2–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4India scored on error, Steer safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Betts.1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 3Ohtani homered to left (368 feet), Betts scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Betts homered to left center (374 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML CIN +165 / LAD -195
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 64.1%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- LAD -175
- CIN +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.6 – 4.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +6 | CIN: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · LAD: James Paxton: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +101 Elo | LAD 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 64.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.53rd of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 21st of 3010–12 | Road vs home | 15–86th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–21 | 24–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–13 | 23–19 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 22–21–1 | 24–21–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 5–2 LAD in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.