Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Santiago EspinalBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Gurriel Jr. doubled to right, Carroll scored.1–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 5Espinal homered to left center (390 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Walker homered to left center (396 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 59%
- ML CIN +135 / ARI -155
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- ARI: Elo 51.4%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- ARI -143
- CIN +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.9 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −8 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +9 Elo | ARI 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 21st of 309–11 | Road vs home | 10–1115th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–21 | 21–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–13 | 8–11 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 21–20–1 | 19–23–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 5–7 ARI in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.