Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Reds- Jeimer CandelarioBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Friedl singled to right, Fraley scored, Candelario to third.4–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 34–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 8Suárez homered to left center (390 feet).4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 6Moreno singled to left, Gurriel Jr. scored, Suárez to second.3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 4Candelario doubled to left, Espinal scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 3Walker walked, Smith scored, Marte to second, Carroll to third.2–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 42–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Smith doubled to right, Moreno scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Fairchild singled to left, Stephenson scored, Fairchild out stretching at second.0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML ARI -115 / CIN -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- ARI: Elo 50.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- CIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.8 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −11 | ARI: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +2 Elo | ARI 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 23rd of 307–10 | Road vs home | 9–1119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–19 | 17–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 10–10 |
| Underdog | 9–10 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 15–20–1 | 18–16–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 4–4 CIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.