Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting3-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Reds- Jake FraleyBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fraley singled to center, Benson scored, Steer to second, De La Cruz to third.11–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–1
- 9Santander homered to right center (402 feet), Cowser scored, Urías scored and Henderson scored.11–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 9Cowser doubled to left, McKenna scored.7–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 7Rutschman singled to left, Urías scored.6–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 7McKenna homered to left (353 feet).5–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Rutschman doubled to left, Urías scored, Henderson to third.4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Westburg homered to right (378 feet), Santander scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Santander singled to center, Mountcastle scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 54%
- ML BAL +110 / CIN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- CIN: Elo 49.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -119
- BAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.6 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +12 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +6 Elo | BAL 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–4 | Road vs home | 9–915th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–12 | 17–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–11 | 10–9 |
| Underdog | 7–1 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 17–14–2 | 17–15–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 3–2 CIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.