Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- John MeansPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting2-3
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Steer singled to right, Fraley scored, Thompson to third.2–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 5Rutschman homered to left center (377 feet).2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Mateo homered to left center (374 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 53%
- ML BAL +105 / CIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- CIN: Elo 47.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -114
- BAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.1 – 4.4 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +8 | BAL: John Means: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +17 Elo | BAL 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.215th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–4 | Road vs home | 9–813th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–12 | 17–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–11 | 10–8 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 17–13–2 | 17–14–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 2–2 CIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.