Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stephenson homered to center (399 feet).6–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 7India homered to center (406 feet).6–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 7Marte homered to center (410 feet).6–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 7Carroll homered to left center (390 feet), Barnhart scored and Newman scored.5–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 5Carroll singled to center, Barnhart scored, Newman to third.2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Carroll grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, McCarthy scored, Barnhart out at second.1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 53%
- ML ARI -125 / CIN +105
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- ARI: Elo 49.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -114
- CIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.4 – 4.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −6 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +5 Elo | CIN 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 25th of 306–10 | Road vs home | 9–1017th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–19 | 17–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 10–10 |
| Underdog | 9–10 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 15–19–1 | 18–15–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 3–4 CIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.