Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Stuart FairchildBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Giants- Thairo EstradaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Fairchild homered to left center (388 feet).4–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Friedl doubled to left, Benson scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Steer singled to right, De La Cruz scored, Ford to second.2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Fitzgerald singled to right, Ramos scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Estrada homered to left center (377 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Steer doubled to left, De La Cruz scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 57%
- ML CIN +125 / SF -145
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- SF: Elo 50.5%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- SF -133
- CIN +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 2.9 – 3.6 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +10 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +4 Elo | SF 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.724th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.125th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 19th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 9–711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–20 | 19–19 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–12 | 8–12 |
| Underdog | 7–8 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 19–17–1 | 18–19–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 3–4 SF in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.