Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Joc PedersonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Reds- Jeimer CandelarioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Carroll singled to center, Barnhart scored, Carroll to second, Smith to third.5–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 7Steer singled to left, Friedl scored and De La Cruz scored, Steer to second.4–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 14–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 7De La Cruz singled to center, Candelario scored, Friedl to third.4–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 7Walker singled to left, Marte scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Suárez hit sacrifice fly to left, Walker scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 6Gurriel Jr. doubled to center, Pederson scored, Walker to third.2–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 5Candelario homered to left center (384 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pederson homered to right (384 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 57%
- ML ARI +125 / CIN -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- CIN: Elo 50.7%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -133
- ARI +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.9 – 4.6 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −7 | ARI: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +5 Elo | CIN 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 23rd of 308–10 | Road vs home | 9–1222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–19 | 17–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 10–11 |
| Underdog | 10–10 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 15–21–1 | 18–17–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 5–4 CIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.