Arizona Diamondbacks at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- John MeansPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 11Westburg singled to right, Cowser scored.4–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Santander homered to center (410 feet).4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Henderson homered to right center (411 feet).4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 5Gurriel Jr. singled to left, Newman scored, Marte to second.4–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 5Carroll hit sacrifice fly to left, Alexander scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 32–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3O'Hearn singled to left, Mateo scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Marte homered to left (392 feet), Newman scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Westburg doubled to center, Mountcastle scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 60%
- ML ARI +140 / BAL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 60.3%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- BAL -149
- ARI +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.8 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | 0 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: John Means: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +73 Elo | BAL 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.77th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.53rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 21st of 309–11 | Road vs home | 13–78th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–20 | 23–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 15–13 |
| Underdog | 11–11 | 8–1 |
| Overs–unders | 16–22–1 | 19–16–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 1–3 BAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.