Arizona Diamondbacks at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Henderson doubled to center, Mateo scored.2–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 6Suárez singled to left, Gurriel Jr. scored, Grichuk to third.2–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 31–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 5O'Hearn singled to right, Henderson scored, Rutschman to third.1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Marte homered to right center (400 feet).1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Mullins grounded out to second, Santander scored, Westburg to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Westburg doubled to center, Mountcastle scored, Santander to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 56%
- ML ARI +120 / BAL -140
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- BAL: Elo 62.5%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -128
- ARI +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.5 – 4.0 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +14 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Cole Irvin: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +89 Elo | BAL 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.77th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.52nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 18th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 12–78th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–19 | 22–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 14–13 |
| Underdog | 11–10 | 8–1 |
| Overs–unders | 16–21–1 | 19–15–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 1–2 BAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.