Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting1-4
- Corbin BurnesPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Lipscomb singled to right, Rosario scored.0–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 7Rosario singled to left, Meneses scored.0–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Meneses singled to right, Winker scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 66%
- ML BAL -220 / WSH +185
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 57.6%, market 66.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -196
- WSH +196 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.0 – 3.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +7 | BAL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +53 Elo | BAL 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 62.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 66.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 1st of 3011–4 | Road vs home | 6–924th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–12 | 21–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 14–11 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 8–1 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders | 18–14–2 | 16–17–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 4–0 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.