Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Mason BlackPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bailey hit sacrifice fly to center, Fitzgerald scored, Wade Jr. to second, Estrada to third.1–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 4De La Cruz homered to center.1–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 1Chapman homered to center (416 feet), Wade Jr. scored, Bailey scored and Ramos scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 57%
- ML CIN -145 / SF +125
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- CIN: Elo 51.5%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -133
- SF +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.1 – 3.4 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −11 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SF: Mason Black: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +11 Elo | CIN 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.726th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | −1.125th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 16th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 9–813th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–20 | 19–20 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–12 | 8–13 |
| Underdog | 8–8 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 19–18–1 | 18–20–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 4–4 SF in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.