Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Mike FordBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Giants- LaMonte Wade Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Schmitt hit a ground rule double, Matos scored, Sabol to third.5–6
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–6
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 8Ford homered to center (427 feet).5–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Fraley singled to left, Steer scored, India to second.4–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 5Sabol reached on infield single to shortstop, Ramos scored on throwing error by shortstop De La Cruz, Sabol to third.3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 5Ramos singled to center, Flores scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 5Wade Jr. homered to right (321 feet), Chapman scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Chapman singled to center, Fitzgerald scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Candelario doubled to right, Fairchild scored, Friedl scored and Steer scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 54%
- ML CIN +110 / SF -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- SF: Elo 53.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -119
- CIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.6 – 3.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +12 | CIN: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SF: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +25 Elo | SF 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.724th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.025th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 19th of 308–9 | Road vs home | 10–811th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–21 | 20–20 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–13 | 8–13 |
| Underdog | 8–8 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 19–19–1 | 18–21–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 4–5 SF in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.