Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Will BensonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Blaze AlexanderBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Fairchild singled to center, Fraley scored, Espinal to second.6–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 6Espinal singled to left, Stephenson scored, Fraley to third.5–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 34–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 5Benson homered to right center (388 feet), Capel scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Candelario singled to center, Stephenson scored, Candelario to second.2–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Fraley hit sacrifice fly to center, Ford scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - PitchTimerViolation-Pitcher 10–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Alexander singled to right, McCarthy scored and Newman scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML CIN -105 / ARI -115
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- ARI: Elo 55.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- CIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.2 – 4.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −2 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +40 Elo | ARI 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 24th of 308–11 | Road vs home | 10–1014th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–21 | 21–21 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–13 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 21–19–1 | 19–22–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 4–7 ARI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.