Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Mike FordBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Joc PedersonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Newman singled to right, Gurriel Jr. scored and Moreno scored, McCarthy to second.5–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 8Ford tripled to right, Candelario scored.5–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 8Candelario singled to center, Steer scored.4–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 13–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 7Suárez singled to left, Walker scored, Gurriel Jr. to third.3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 6Ford singled to left, Stephenson scored, Candelario to second.3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 3Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Walker scored, Suárez to third.2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pederson homered to center (434 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Steer doubled to right, De La Cruz scored and Espinal scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Moreno homered to right center (385 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 57%
- ML CIN +125 / ARI -145
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- ARI: Elo 56.5%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -133
- CIN +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.9 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +3 | CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +45 Elo | ARI 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 308–10 | Road vs home | 9–1017th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–21 | 21–20 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–13 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 20–19–1 | 18–22–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 4–6 ARI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.