Arizona Diamondbacks at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Jake McCarthyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 6Rutschman homered to right (363 feet).9–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 19–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–1
- 6Grichuk doubled to left, Carroll scored and Marte scored.9–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 37–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 27–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 6Marte singled to right, Barnhart scored and Newman scored, Marte to second, Carroll to third.7–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6McCarthy homered to right (366 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored.5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Westburg doubled to left, Santander scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Marte hit sacrifice fly to center, Newman scored, Carroll to second, Barnhart to third.3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 5Carroll grounded into fielder's choice to third, Suárez scored on throwing error by third baseman Urías, Barnhart to second, Newman to third.2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Walker hit sacrifice fly to center, Carroll scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 54%
- ML ARI +110 / BAL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- BAL: Elo 57.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.6 – 3.9 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −10 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +50 Elo | BAL 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.77th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.53rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–12 | Road vs home | 14–76th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–20 | 23–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 15–14 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 8–1 |
| Overs–unders | 17–22–1 | 20–16–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 1–4 BAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.