Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin StonePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Giants- Luis MatosBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Keaton WinnPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Matos singled to left, Sabol scored.10–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking10–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 210–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 110–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–1
- 9T. Hernández tripled to right, Freeman scored and Smith scored.10–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–1
- 9Freeman singled to right, Rojas scored.8–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 37–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 27–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 9Rojas doubled to right, Outman scored.7–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 7Ohtani doubled to left, Betts scored.6–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 6Ramos singled to center, Wade Jr. scored.5–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 5Smith singled to left, Betts scored, Ohtani to second.5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Lux tripled to center, T. Hernández scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Muncy hit sacrifice fly to center, Smith scored, T. Hernández to third.3–0
- 4Pitch 10 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 63%
- ML LAD -190 / SF +155
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 62.2%, market 62.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -167
- SF +167 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.8 – 3.7 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −18 | LAD: Gavin Stone: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SF: Keaton Winn: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +86 Elo | LAD 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 61.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 62.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 3.825th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.8 | Margin | −1.024th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 4th of 3012–7 | Road vs home | 11–910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–20 | 20–22 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–17 | 8–14 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 22–20–1 | 20–21–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 11–6 SF in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.