Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Giants- Luis MatosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jordan HicksPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Smith doubled to center, Freeman scored and Betts scored.6–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 7E. Hernández homered to left (406 feet).4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 6Ramos singled to left, Chapman scored, Wade Jr. to second.3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Lux hit a ground rule double, Muncy scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Ohtani reached on infield single to second, Pages scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 2Matos homered to left (385 feet), Flores scored and Sabol scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Betts homered to left (363 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 66%
- ML LAD -220 / SF +185
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.3%, market 66.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -196
- SF +196 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.5 – 3.0 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −6 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SF: Jordan Hicks: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +73 Elo | LAD 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 66.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.825th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.8 | Margin | −0.924th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 5th of 3011–7 | Road vs home | 11–810th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–20 | 20–21 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–17 | 8–14 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 21–20–1 | 19–21–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 10–6 SF in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.