Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Will BensonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Gavin LuxBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lux singled to right, Betts scored and Pages scored, En. Hernández to third.7–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 9Ford singled to right, Fairchild scored, De La Cruz to third, Benson thrown out at home.7–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 9De La Cruz reached on infield single to shortstop, Espinal scored, Benson to second, Fairchild to third.6–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 35–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 9Fairchild doubled to center, Candelario scored, Espinal to third.5–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 5Steer struck out, De La Cruz scored, Steer to first on wild pitch by Glasnow.4–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging4–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 3Stephenson singled to center, De La Cruz scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Stephenson doubled to left, De La Cruz scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Benson homered to right center (439 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 73%
- ML CIN +250 / LAD -310
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 65.9%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -265
- CIN +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 2.7 – 4.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +22 | CIN: Brent Suter: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 1.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +114 Elo | LAD 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 70.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 69.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.52nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.81st of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 309–12 | Road vs home | 15–73rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–21 | 24–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–13 | 23–18 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 21–21–1 | 23–21–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 4–2 LAD in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.