Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Stuart FairchildBatting2-4
- Hunter GreenePitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Landon KnackPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Ohtani singled to right, Heyward scored, Smith to second.2–3
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 12–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 7Steer walked, India scored, Stephenson to second, Fairchild to third.2–2
- 7Pitch 9 : Ball 42–2
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 5Espinal doubled to left, Fairchild scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Pages homered to left (357 feet), Freeman scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 59%
- ML CIN +135 / LAD -155
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 62.8%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- LAD -143
- CIN +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.9 – 4.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −3 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +91 Elo | LAD 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 65.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.52nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3010–14 | Road vs home | 17–86th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–23 | 26–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–13 | 25–19 |
| Underdog | 13–10 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 23–22–1 | 25–22–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 5–4 LAD in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.