Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Will BensonBatting1-4
- Graham AshcraftPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8T. Hernández singled to right, Freeman scored.0–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Freeman singled to center, Rojas scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 4Lux grounded out to pitcher, T. Hernández scored, Pages to third.0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pages singled to center, Freeman scored, Pages to second, T. Hernández to third.0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML CIN +155 / LAD -185
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 63.9%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -166
- CIN +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.7 – 4.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +1 | CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +99 Elo | LAD 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 65.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.53rd of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3010–13 | Road vs home | 16–86th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–22 | 25–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–13 | 24–19 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 23–21–1 | 25–21–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 5–3 LAD in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.