San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis ArraezBatting2-4
- Randy VasquezPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris SalePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 5Ozuna homered to left (410 feet).0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3d'Arnaud singled to left, Ozuna scored, Olson to second.0–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Albies singled to left, Acuña Jr. scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 68%
- ML SD +200 / ATL -240
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.8%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -212
- SD +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.4 – 5.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +10 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +62 Elo | ATL 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 62.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.97th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 4th of 3014–8 | Road vs home | 15–86th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–22 | 22–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–17 | 18–20 |
| Underdog | 14–5 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 27–21–1 | 14–26–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 7–3 ATL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 10.