Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting1-4
- Luis CastilloPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis GilPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rizzo hit sacrifice fly to center, Judge scored.0–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 7Verdugo hit sacrifice fly to center, Soto scored.0–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 7Soto singled to right, Volpe scored.0–3
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 30–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Judge homered to center (414 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Stanton homered to center (445 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 59%
- ML SEA +135 / NYY -155
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.2%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- NYY -143
- SEA +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.4 – 4.1 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +4 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +29 Elo | NYY 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.31st of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.52nd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 17–84th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–26 | 28–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 12–15 | 16–18 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders | 20–28–2 | 23–27–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–5 NYY in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.