Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Tommy PhamBatting2-4
- Brad KellerPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Juan SotoBatting4-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis GilPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 14 K
Scoring summary
- 5Soto homered to right center (437 feet).1–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 3Stanton homered to right center (382 feet).1–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 2Soto singled to right, Berti scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 21–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 2Trevino homered to left (352 feet).1–3
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 31–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Stanton doubled to center, Verdugo scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Soto homered to right center (417 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Benintendi doubled to left, Pham scored, Sheets to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 72%
- ML CHW +240 / NYY -290
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 65.7%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- NYY -253
- CHW +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.2 – 5.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1428 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +1 | CHW: Brad Keller: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +113 Elo | NYY 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 68.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 68.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 71.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.9 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 27th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.31st of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.0 | Margin | +1.53rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 30th of 304–17 | Road vs home | 14–62nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–23 | 25–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–0 | 13–16 |
| Underdog | 19–23 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders | 19–25–1 | 19–26–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–3 NYY in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.