Washington Nationals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Jacob YoungBatting1-4
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
White Sox- Korey LeeBatting3-3, 1 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Lee singled to center, Benintendi scored.0–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pham doubled to left, Shewmake scored on error, Pham safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Vargas.0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 61%
- ML WSH +145 / CHW -170
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.3 pts
- CHW: Elo 48.3%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- CHW -154
- WSH +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.3 – 4.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +15 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +12 Elo | WSH 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 2.930th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 12th of 3013–11 | Road vs home | 9–1427th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–15 | 21–22 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 23–14 | 19–22 |
| Overs–unders | 18–22–1 | 19–23–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–2 CHW in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.