Washington Nationals at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Trey LipscombBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Connor WongBatting2-4
- Tanner HouckPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Robles singled to left, Lipscomb scored.5–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 9Rosario scored on Jansen wild pitch, Lipscomb to second on wild pitch by Jansen.5–1
- 9Rosario scored on Jansen wild pitch, Lipscomb to second on wild pitch by Jansen.5–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 4Cooper doubled to left, Wong scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Meneses reached on infield single to second, L. García Jr. scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Lipscomb singled to right, Ruiz scored and Rosario scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 65%
- ML WSH +175 / BOS -210
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 57.6%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -186
- WSH +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.6 – 4.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −2 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +53 Elo | BOS 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 60.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.53rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.98th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 9th of 3011–8 | Road vs home | 7–919th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–13 | 18–19 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 4–11 |
| Underdog | 21–12 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 17–18–1 | 14–21–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–1 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.