Washington Nationals at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cooper CriswellPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Devers doubled to left, O'Neill scored and González scored.2–4
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5Duran doubled to left, Hamilton scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Rosario homered to left (333 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 31–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Abreu homered to right (400 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Meneses homered to left center (388 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - Pitch Timer Violation 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML WSH +125 / BOS -145
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 58.5%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -133
- WSH +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.9 – 4.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +18 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Cooper Criswell: team allows 0.92 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +60 Elo | BOS 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.65th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.89th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 6th of 3012–8 | Road vs home | 7–1022nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–13 | 18–20 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 4–12 |
| Underdog | 22–12 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 17–19–1 | 14–22–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–1 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.