Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Corey JulksBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Jon BertiBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Judge homered to right (339 feet), Soto scored.2–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 4Berti homered to right center (366 feet), Rizzo scored and Torres scored.2–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 2Trevino singled to right, Rizzo scored and Torres scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Remillard tripled to center, Lee scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Julks homered to left center (397 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 74%
- ML CHW +270 / NYY -335
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 69.7%, market 74.0%
- Fair odds
- NYY -285
- CHW +285 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.1 – 5.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1426 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −23 | −3 | CHW: Chris Flexen: team allows 1.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +145 Elo | NYY 69.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 73.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 72.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 74.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.8 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 27th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.0 | Margin | +1.62nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 30th of 304–18 | Road vs home | 15–61st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–24 | 26–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–0 | 14–16 |
| Underdog | 19–24 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders | 19–26–1 | 19–27–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–4 NYY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.